Used many times in the past by this Political Joe and others, the old ‘a week is a long time in politics’ adage has never been more accurate. From speaking to supporters in front of the White House, to becoming the only US President to be impeached for a second time, President Trump continues to grab the media spotlight, and therefore bettors as well, as we enter the twilight days of his four-year presidential reign.
Let’s face it, the recent impeachment process has been as much for show (a penalty kick when betting markets opened), as it has been about preventing Trump running for the presidency again in the future. Given his age profile alone, the latter is somewhat unlikely despite the single digit prices available. While some Democrats see it as an opportunity to turn the screw and put some leading Republicans in a very tight spot, what they might be missing is how they could be serving the division that already exists stateside; making President Biden’s job of unification that much more difficult. 74m American’s voted for Donald Trump in November 2020, and even if he personally wasn’t to toe the line in 2024, the Trump name could carry significant weight ….step forward Ivanka, 25/1 (3%) with William Hill?
While the impeachment process stole the headlines for several days, it soon became clear due to logistics and associated timelines, it wouldn’t cut President Trump’s term short despite some market volatility late last week. Firmly in focus now is whether the Senate convict President Trump at the Impeachment Trial. The market would suggest this will be a struggle with the Paddy Power & Betfair making it a 2/1 (33%) chance enough Republicans cross that divide.
Having unfortunately been forced to close their Twitter inauguration prop market last weekend thanks to President Trump having that chapter of his presidency firmly closed, Paddy Power still have plenty of inauguration markets capturing bettor’s imagination.
With the inauguration snub by President Trump, attention turned to what he might be doing when President Biden is sworn in on Capitol Hill this Wednesday? He now looks set to spend the afternoon (and his last hours as Commander in Chief) in his beloved Florida, either playing golf 1/12 (67%) or tanning 6/1 (14%). On the phone with Kim Jong-Un 25/1 (4%) is another considerable long shot given the well-know relationship between both leaders.
But what of the Biden/Harris inauguration day ceremony? Paddy Power once again have markets about how they might dress and what might be mentioned in the main speech. Blue is the current odds on favourite 5/6 (54%) for the colour of tie selected by Joe Biden for the public event, while Harris’ chosen jacket is currently a toss up between White 5/2 (29%) and Blue/Navy 3/1 (25%). During his speech, if you believe Biden might name check ‘Trump’ it’s 6/4 (40%). Other words or phrases of interest include 'Pandemic' 1/14 (93%), 'Black Lives Matter' 3/1 (26%), 'Boris' 10/1 (9%) and 'Brexit' 20/1 (5%).
There’s always a honeymoon period for a newly elected president. According to Smarkets' sportsbook that appears to be coming to pass once more with a Joe Biden 100-day approval rating of 55-59.9% trading at 5/4 (44%) favourite in their relevant market.
With plenty of divides to close, wounds to heal and big-ticket items to deal with straight out of the gate, this Political Joe will be very interested to see what that might be in a years’ time!