The 2020 US election was expected to be one of the most exciting betting events of the decade. It did not disappoint. Here's out latest recap on last night's action, current odds and what to expect from now on. Don't forget to subscribe so you can stay updated on everything happening around betting markets during this final strectch!
It’s not often the reality lives up to the expectation but that’s what we’ve gotten overnight. The 2020 US Presidential Election is on a knife edge with nobody entirely sure what way things might fall. What we do know, as somewhat predicted in advance, states like Pennsylvania and Arizona will hold the key and are still very much counting…. possibly for days!
Big Overnight Events
All eyes were on the Sunshine State as they were pretty much certain to return an early result unless the margins got too tight. The fact that they could count and prepare early voting ballots ahead of election day gave them a distinct advantage.
With a large percentage of votes counted Biden lead 49.6% to 45.5%. The back and forth continued while the remaining, but crucial, areas down south were still to return. Miami Dade County was on of those which saw Trump wrestle back control buoyed by significant Latino support which was tipped by some to split somewhat Democratic.
With Florida in the bag for Trump everything was on the table once again. Losing that could well have been the end of things for the President.
Blue Wave Breaks Too Early?
Marginal states and how they fall are part of every US election, but there were some key contests which both campaigns would have been focused on.
Texas was a state that many thought might be in play for the Democrats due to demographics and interstate relocations. Trump had dismissed it as nonsense during his late rallies and has been proven correct, carrying it by just shy of 6%. If it’s not too early to talk about 2024, it’ll be one the Democrats will focus on again!
Georgia as a marginal is still very much in play however. Trump leads by just 100,000 votes but will later votes set to favour the Democrats this one will be pivotal for the remainder of the count and could ultimately go a long way to being responsible for the outcome.
What a betting event this has been in the last 24 hours. The Betfair Exchange smashed through the £400m matched and has since been steadily heading towards £500m – a record future target which will take some catching.
Flip flopping favourites on a number of occasions overnight contributed to huge volumes being traded across the industry. Donald Trump went solid favourite a few times and hit a basement price of 1/4 (80%) on the Betfair Exchange as key states started to fall his way. Paddy Power & William Hill went as short as 1/8 (88%). Since these lows there have also been significant market highs; President Trump since hit the dizzying heights of 5/1 (16%) as morning broke across the US.
As American’s went to bed, European’s work to Trump being as favourite. That quickly became 50/50 post breakfast but since then it has been one-way traffic. At time of writing Biden is a prohibitive favourite at 1/9 (90%) with positive Democratic vibes coming after finally taking Wisconsin and Michigan.
The coming hours and days are set to be a little slower moving than the previous 36 hours. Counts are taking time and the pressure is mounting. This Political Joe will go more Biden than Trump when it comes to predicting the outcome – there’s a little bit left in this Election for the Ages.