With the last weekend before Election Day ahead and the betting markets grabbing more attention than ever, Political Joe brings you the latest update on the offers you should not lose sight of from now on! Don't forget to subscribe so you can stay updated to the latest updates in this exciting end of campaign.
This is going to be YUGE!
Election Day 2020 is now within touching distance and the anticipation is almost at fever pitch. After months, possibly even years for some, of poring over data and statistics, the proof of the pudding will finally be in the eating. Will Joe Biden avenge his Democratic predecessor and finally topple President Trump? Or will it be four more years for the reality TV businessman who was dismissed as a 100/1 longshot when first entering the betting for 2016?
It’s safe to say that Presidential Election 2020 is already the biggest betting event of the year for most bookmakers and exchanges. In the illustrious words of President Trump, when it comes to the betting markets, this is going to be YUGE!
The Betfair Exchange have already seen a record-breaking week in terms of this election. In the last number of days, they reported the previous record for volume matched on a single market (£199m US Election 2016) has already been surpassed. Election 2020 is now the biggest market in their history and is going to set a significant future target given the closing days will likely see sizeable additional volume.
Presidential Election Winner – Next President
The ‘Next President’ market has seen a tightening of the betting in recent days. President Trump has shortened into 15/8 (35%) with Paddy Power & Betfair. It’s easy to see why, with both firms reporting almost 8 out of every 10 bets they’re accepting for President Trump. The betting public have seen this movie before, and they believe they know how it ends.
For that very reason Paddy Power is trying to level the playing field today by launching a new customer offer with Democratic candidate Joe Biden at odds 3/1 (25%), an absolute gift for any bettor who doesn't have an user account on this platform yet.
Beyond exclusive offers, and statistically speaking, the value bet continues to be Biden with any bookmaker. The polls suggest that he should be a lot shorter in the betting. He has a bigger lead than Hillary Clinton had in 2016 but ironically is a larger price. On the flip slide, President Trump is much further behind yet is a shorter price than when he sprung his 2016 upset.
Popular Vote Winner
Given President Trump managed to win the Electoral College Vote in 2016 but not amass the most votes nationwide this is a market many are interested in for reference purposes. At 1/7 (87%) Paddy Power & Betfair, it doesn’t offer much of a betting proposition. Anybody considering this would be better off just taking Joe Biden in the main outright market for the reasons detailed earlier.
Although many may not know it, there are several other candidates on the ballot papers for Tuesday and in true bookmaking fashion markets are available on the candidate to finish third. Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) is a prohibitive favourite (1/6) for that notable achievement. While unlikely to impact as significantly this time around, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Hillary Clinton was negatively affected by third and fourth candidates in 2016.
Popular Vote Percentage
These are interesting markets which offer the bettor an opportunity to select what percentage of the overall vote a candidate might achieve. Joe Biden is currently favoured to achieve 52.00 – 54.99% at 7/4 (36%) with Paddy Power & Betfair. President Trump on the other hand is pitched in the 43.00 – 45.99% range at 15/8 (35%).
The selections which interest me in a market such are this are the extremes – always tricky to price, they can often be undervalued. President Trump is 10/1 (9%) with Paddy Power & Betfair to achieve ‘39.99% or less’ of the overall vote. On a good day for Joe Biden it is conceivable that Trump’s vote percentage may be impacted considerably. It’s also worth keeping in mind that 70%+ of Republicans polled indicated they will vote in person on election day. Factor in eventualities like poor November weather in some of the northern states and people may not be as motivated as they might have been to get to the polls.
Electoral College Vote
With 270 required to secure the presidency many will be monitoring the electoral college closely. A total of 538 electors are up for grabs and with the polls falling the way they are, the more speculative bettor may be more interested in betting on the Joe Biden margin rather than taking his odds-on price to win the election.
At William Hill there’s potentially value to be had at the upper end extremes of this market. 420+ is 9/1 (10%) while 390-419 is 13/2 (13%). If things start to go the Democrats way and final numbers nationally align with the polls, it’s conceivable that these landslide type numbers are within reach.
State with Smallest Winning Margin (Percentage)
This is a fun market from Paddy Power & Betfair and offers something a little different. Given this year’s count could drag on for days, it’s the type of market that might also get you from the start of the count to the end result with a lasting interest.
Back in 2016 President Trump won Michigan by 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.72% and Wisconsin by 0.77%. All razor thin margins and similar will be required to land a winning selection in 2020. Florida is favoured at 6/1 (14%) and given its history is difficult to argue with. But I believe having featured in the top three the last time around, Pennsylvania at 7/1 (12%) might be the value play. It’s a state that was clearly divided in 2016 and is sure to be close once again with Trump targeting Biden’s home patch.
The Big Day, or Days!
That’s just a taste of some of the wide and varied markets available across the betting industry as political betting becomes a behemoth for many in 2020. Whatever your investment of choice might be, it’s important to remember that the big day could well be somewhat longer in 2020.
Be you Republican, Democrat or non-party, exciting times are just around the corner and this Political Joe just can’t wait.