The main political event of the year is now behind us, but the betting action continues after the latest events around the US election official results, vote fraud allegations and a President who seems willing to wrestle until his last day in office. Don't forget to subscribe so you can stay updated to the special betting markets coming up during this tumultuous end of the year!

Get weekly updates sent to your inbox


A Long Presidential Goodbye!

We’ve all been there. It’s a cold, dark, inhospitable midweek November morning and after peering out the window you just don’t fancy the idea of leaving the house. Even if the house is whiter than white and you’re the leader of the free world!

While many predicted some form of long presidential goodbye prior to the result, nobody could have predicted what has played out in recent weeks. With Joe Biden projected by all the mainstream media to have achieved 306 Electoral College votes (even though that did take a lot longer than we have been accustomed to in the past), resisting acknowledgement of the result by President Trump appears futile and ill-advised. Taking to his beloved twitter to express his emotions President Trump is living up to his Baby Blimp characterisation more so than his status as Commander in Chief.

How Did The Betting Markets Perform?

Ironically enough, before we look at how the markets performed versus expectations, we should acknowledge the fact that over on the Betfair Exchange you can still get Joe Biden at 1/16 (94%) to win the Presidential Election despite the result being somewhat obvious. With counting continuing in some states and no clear line in the sand when it comes to a public concession, the operator must be careful. With over £700m traded on the market who can blame them!

2020 US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds

Presdential Betting Odds

Assuming the legal challenges fall short and the results stands as is, we can say with confidence the betting markets outperformed some of the major US pollsters including 538. Trump energised his base late and got his vote out – just after Florida was called in his favour on election night Trump hit 1.25 (80%) to get four more years.

As predicted, there was a huge increase in turnout and the presidents campaign increased his total vote from 2016 by over eight million! This resulted in the race being a lot more aligned to betting markets than the margins the polls were suggesting – 'Shy Trumper' allowance wasn’t factored in enough. If using the starting price from polling day, betting markets also accurately predicted the winner of 49 out of the 50 states – Georgia being the only outlier, and that as we know is still somewhat of a tightly contested affair.

2020 US Election popular vote map according to betting markets (percentage odds) on Nov 2 – guesser.com

What's Next For Donald Trump?

Never ones to miss a trick, our friends over at Paddy Power & Betfair have been quick out of the blocks with a host of special markets to entertain now that the main political event of 2020 is just about behind us. If you’re waiting on that aforementioned concession from President Trump, don’t hold your breath. It’s 4/1 (20%) that he publicly congratulates Joe Biden on his victory before December 1st – at those odds, and the way he has acted post the election, it may take something along the lines of a Christmas miracle!

Trump To Concede Election Betting Odds

US Political Betting Odds

Further digging in of his heels in terms of the election result might also see him be the first living president to swerve an inauguration for reasons other than health. Having opened at odds against there has been sustained support for ‘No’ side of this two-way prop – it’s now 4/9 (69%) he’ll be otherwise engaged on January 20th.

Trump Present At Biden's Inauguration Betting Odds

US Political Betting Odds

If you think the President’s stubborn streak might extend to things on the marriage front, well then there’s a prop for that too! Now that the good times are over in terms of life as First Lady, it’s only 15/8 (35%) that Melania files for divorce before the end of 2021. The Don has a bit of his history in this space, so if you don’t think the third time is a charm, this might be value.

Donald Trump Specials Betting Odds

US Political Betting Odds

So, did Donald Trump win or lose this election? History books will officially show he lost, but reading between the lines this Political Joe can see how he might consider himself a winner regardless. There’s no such thing as bad publicity when it comes to the Trump empire, and he has well and truly turned the last number of weeks news cycle into a story about him rather than the person who actually won the election. If you want an early 2024 prediction, they’ll be a ‘Trump’ name on the ticket, I’m just not sure which one.


Get weekly updates sent to your inbox