In the end Donald Trump's departure from the US Presidency was as fitting as much of his tenure - loosely planned with a hefty dash of entertainment. He boarded Air Force One to his campaign rally favourite YMCA, and as the mighty aircraft hurtled down the runway for take-off, it was Frank Sinatra's My Way that rang out over the speakers. There could be no arguing that one of the most divisive presidents’ in the history of the United States did it any other way but his own!
From a betting perspective Trump may certainly be gone, but he is far from forgotten. There is the small matter of his Impeachment Trial in the coming days now taking centre stage. Joe Biden may well be happy with the sideshow as he attempts to deal with a first 100 days like no other for a new president. Markets suggest it is unlikely we see a Trump conviction this week with Paddy Power & Betfair updating to 6/1 (14%) recently from an opening price of 2/1 (33%) when the impeachment was first confirmed. Smarkets' SBK add an interesting wrinkle to proceedings given recent events, with everybody’s favourite Republican Mitch McConnell favoured to vote against convicting Trump at 2/5 (71%).
Obviously with President Biden newly inaugurated, there are plenty of markets to do with his opening days in office. Smarkets' SBK make it 6/5 (45%) that his approval rating on day 100 will land in the 55-59.9% bracket, a long way from the lowly 30's where his predecessor exited. With the global pandemic impacting travel it’s interesting to see the United Kingdom as the most likely first international visit, at 13/8 (38%) with Paddy Power. With much referencing of Irish poetry and a large percentage of his appointments claiming some form of Irish heritage, 5/1 (17%) the Republic of Ireland is sure to be popular. It’s unlikely a trip to one wouldn’t see a stopover in the other, but where first is obviously the key.
At 78 years old President Biden is the oldest US president ever elected. Sometimes controversial for obvious reasons, SBK currently trade 4/5 (55%) that he completes his four-year term in office. William Hill are also looking to the future with some of their markets and offer 7/4 (36%) Kamala Harris becomes president before the end of 2040. They also offer 5/2 (28%) that she manages to land two terms.
If you’re interested in shorter term markets, prices landed in recent weeks for the New York City Mayoral Election in November this year. There’s certainly a US 2020 flavour at play, as once Democratic hopeful Andrew Yang 6/4 (40%) heads the market with Paddy Power & Betfair.
‘We will be back in some form’ were Donald Trump’s departing words to the media this past week. Not on a par with The Terminator delivery by Arnold Schwarzenegger for this Political Joe, is it enough however to whet one’s appetite and leave his supporters wanting more?