It’s never dull in the wonderful world of Politics and Novelty markets. This week we move closer to end of some partnerships and potentially further away from agreement around others. Bill Bailey is under pressure as we move to the semi-final stage of Strictly Come Dancing and Boris Johnson is feeling a different kind of partnership heat as another all-important Brexit deadline looms.


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Brexit Deal In 2020

As we find ourselves in the midst of the festive season, Brexit comes into focus once again, and maintains its status as the gift that keeps on giving. With a deadline fast approaching the question remains about the ability of the UK and Europe to hammer out a trade deal which both are willing to put pen to paper on. William Hill are currently best in market at 10/11 (52% chance) that a deal will finally be done before the end of December, with Paddy Power offering 5/4 (44%) that an agreement won’t be reached. Fishing rights appeared to be one significant stumbling block in recent days, but Boris will be thinking more along the lines of pulling a rabbit out of hat before the end of the month.

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Boris Johnson Approval

The Prime Minister won’t be impressed that markets are suggesting his YouGov approval rating is heading for a further December slide. 36% or lower has been well supported into 2/3 (60% chance) at Betfair from an opening price of 5/6 (54%) at the start of the month. Obviously, the ability to reach a Brexit agreement will have direct correlation here, so it’s a market to keep an eye on.

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Strictly Come Dancing Winner

On the entertainment side of things Strictly Come Dancing is proving a puzzle punters are finding difficult to solve ahead of the December 19th final. Having been as short as 4/7 (64% chance) favourite heading into last weekends show, Bill Bailey came somewhat unstuck and is now all the way back out to 5/4 (44%) at Paddy Power. Popstar HRVY has been heavily backed after a dazzling display and is now only 13/8 (38%) best price with William Hill. He was certainly eye-catchingly light on his feet this week while Bailey appeared to be light on votes.

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BBC SPOTY Winner

Staying with all things BBC, the Sports Personality of the Year Award shortlist was announced this week. As previously predicted, the achievement award announced for Marcus Rashford has meant he was not on the six-person ballot. Having shortened considerably when confirmed, Lewis Hamilton remains a drifting favourite at 2/5 (71% chance) with William Hill. World snooker champion Ronnie O’Sullivan gets his first ever nomination for the award and has been supported into 5/1 (17%) second favourite. Tyson Fury is friendless for obvious reasons after releasing a social media video asking the BBC to remove him from consideration!

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UK Christmas Number One

I must admit, this Political Joe was extremely surprised to see Mariah Carey heading the market for Christmas Number One at only 13/8 (38% chance) with Betfair. LadBaby, the novelty themed winner for the last two years and originally 8/11 (58%) favourite, has now drifted all the way out to a best price of 4/1 (20%) at William Hill. It’s a market to monitor over the coming weeks as given the more modern approach to compiling the charts, late moves from big priced outsider are always a possibility.

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